Hi {{FIRST_NAME|Readers}},

Software vendors are quietly abandoning “per-seat” and “per-module” pricing in the “era of AI”…

And they're hoping you won't notice until it's too late…

Take this line I heard in a recent procurement software demo:

"We're transitioning to outcome-based pricing so you only pay when our AI functionality delivers measurable business results to your procurement organization."

Sounds great, right? Very customer-centric!

But here’s the dirty little secret behind that line…

Access to generative AI models is charged by usage at the enterprise level.

(contrary to your personal usage of Chat GPT, Claude, Gemini or Co-Pilot)

Giving you unlimited Gen AI usage under “fixed price” licenses would trigger an unsustainable "cost death spiral" for software vendors…

After all, they are caught between a rock and a hard place: paying their Gen AI provider “per use” in the background!

So they're passing variable costs to you using "outcome-based pricing."

The question is… What outcomes are you actually paying for? Is it a good deal?

Let’s find out in tonight’s note.

Onwards!

📰 In this week’s edition:

  • 🎥 AI Software Pricing Tricks Revealed! (sponsored)

  • 📋 5 procurement jobs that caught my eye

  • 🌙 The Dirty Little Secret of Gen AI Functionality Pricing Models

Note: Some of the content listed above is only available in the email version of this newsletter. Don’t miss out! Sign up for free to get the next edition.

This edition in partnership with

The “Dirty Little Secret” of AI Software Pricing Is Out!

Next Thursday @ 9:45am ET, I'm exploring the “AI pricing tricks” software vendors are using to grow their revenue on your dime…

AI investment has surged 394% year-on-year, but a lot of that is absolutely wasted spend.

If you like tonight’s note, this webinar is for you!

Michael Keller and I will cover the contract clauses vendors use to shift risk, how to spot AI-washing in pricing models, and the questions that make vendors squirm.

I hope you’ll join us! It’s FREE!

👀 In Case You Missed It…
My Best Linkedin post this week:

The Dirty Little Secret: Gen AI Is Bankrupting Traditional Pricing Models

That additional license cost for Gen AI supported functionalities? It’s not about access to cutting-edge technology... It's about basic survival math ($).

Here's the dirty little secret behind every "Gen AI-powered" feature:

You ask for contract analysis…
→ Vendor calls OpenAI API
→ Costs them $0.30-$3.00 per document

You want spend insights…
→ Multiple Claude API calls
→ Costs them $0.50-$5.00 per analysis

You chat with their "AI assistant"…
→ Could be pennies... or dollars per conversation depending on the length

Gen AI currently burns through computing power like nothing we’ve ever seen before… And, there’s less than a dozen commercial, enterprise grade models on the market… And, everyone is building software that taps into them!

Unlike your personal usage of Chat GPT, Claude, Perplexity or any other model, businesses need to pay every time they call a Large Language Model (LLM)…

That’s a small nuance with a BIG impact!

By the way…

That’s why the companies running these models are all valued at hundreds of billions of dollars each… Pre-revenue! Chat GPT, Claude, Perplexity, xAI, etc. they are burning through cash faster than a crypto influencer at a Lamborghini dealership… Yet, “the market” continues to bankroll them… For now.

The curious thing is that it’s not getting any less expensive to train and run these models as they get better… Moore’s Law does not apply…

So it’s still unclear where this is going long term… We’re at the “great but very expensive potential” stage…

This means that under a traditional "per-user" or “per-module” pricing model, heavy Gen AI functionality users would decimate your software vendor’s margin.

This is unsustainable…

So vendors are pivoting to "outcome-based pricing" for AI functionalities to preserve their margin and transfer risk…

If your vendor can't predict their AI costs, they definitely don't want to absorb them…

So they’re passing them onto you!

The Shift Happening Right Now (While You're Not Looking)

Let's clean house. Here's what's really driving the pricing panic:

Old Model (being killed quietly):
→ Fixed cost per user/month regardless of usage
→ Predictable budgets
→ Vendors eat the variable costs

New Model (being pushed hard):
→ "Pay for results achieved"
→ Costs scale with your "success"
→ You absorb the usage risk

Sounds reasonable, right?

The problem is most vendors proposing "outcome-based pricing" haven't figured out how their AI usage actually improves your bottom line...

…And if we’re being honest, neither have you!

If this is the case, you should be hearing “usage-based pricing” but with a nice marketing lipstick applied. 😅

The Fake "Outcome-Based" Models Taking Over

Let's break them down by what vendors call them vs. the dirty little secret behind each one.

1/ The "Results-Driven" Model

What They Say: "Pay a percentage of savings our AI identifies"

The Dirty Secret: Pay-per-analysis with value-based marketing

  • "2% of contract savings identified" (really: $5 per contract analyzed)

  • "10% of spend optimization opportunities" (really: $2 per supplier evaluated)

Use your calculator. When "outcomes" perfectly correlate with AI usage volume, it's not outcome-based pricing.

2/ The "Success Fee" Model

What They Say: "Only pay when AI delivers measurable value"

The Dirty Secret: Usage-based pricing with a value veneer

  • "Fee per actionable insight generated"

  • "Cost per process improvement implemented"

Hook you with "value-based" language while hiding per-transaction charges.

3/ The "Performance Partnership" Model

What They Say: "We share the risk and reward of AI implementation"

The Dirty Secret: You absorb all the AI cost volatility

  • "Shared investment in AI-driven transformation"

  • "Partnership model for AI success"

Perfect for vendors who want guaranteed revenue while you handle unpredictable AI expenses.

The Questions That Expose the Dirty Little Secret

Here's how to cut through the marketing spin:

  • Which specific AI models are you using and what do they cost?

  • What's your cost per API call?

  • Can we switch to cheaper models for basic tasks?

  • Do you have a non-Gen AI version of this process?

  • What happens when OpenAI/Anthropic raises prices?

If your vendor can't answer these, they're asking you to subsidize their AI experiments.

So demand transparency. Make “should cost” economics a prerequisite.

If a vendor is truly looking to partner, these conversations will be transparent.

How to Protect Yourself

Instead of accepting vague "outcome-based" proposals:

  • Demand full transparency on underlying AI costs

  • Negotiate caps based on your actual usage patterns

  • Include model substitution rights in contracts

  • Define "outcomes" in measurable business terms, not AI metrics

This is the same exercise as working out the costs of your raw materials… Just applied to the Gen AI functionality market.

🔥 Pro tip: Ask vendors to show you their AI cost breakdowns. The honest ones will explain their external dependencies. The sketchy ones will dodge the question.

Real Talk: Most Vendors Haven't Figured This Out Either

Your vendors decide in the first pricing conversation whether they'll admit the “dirty little secret”…

True outcome-based pricing: "Pay 5% of procurement savings we generate"

Fake outcome-based pricing: "Pay per AI analysis that identifies savings opportunities"

The difference? One actually scales with your success. The other scales with vendor costs disguised as your success.

True outcome based pricing is GREAT! It ties costs to the bottom-line of your P/L.

BUT the bigger the scope of the software you’re looking at, the harder to tie usage directly to P/L benefits…

The Bottom Line: Don't Fall for the Disguise

The bottom line: Outcome-based pricing CAN work. But only when both parties understand the true economics and do the hard work of figuring out how they’re going to share the risk… And the reward.

Unfortunately, most businesses aren't ready for real outcome-based pricing… It’s hard to get right… For starters, you need great baselines on the underlying KPIs… Then, you need the right culture around partnerships. That’s already a big ask in most businesses…

In most cases, outcome based is just a fancy word for "pay per use."

Don’t “pay per use” for Gen AI functionalities unless the ROI is crystal clear!

Otherwise, the invoice amount will be the only thing that’s crystal clear 😅.

What has been your experience on AI functionality pricing with your software vendors?

Let me know in the comments 👇

The only way to make sense out of change is to plunge into it, move with it, and join the dance.

Alan Watts
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